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Backtesting gold futures around CPI, jobs reports and FOMC

Scheduled US releases are some of the busiest minutes in gold. Here is what the 2026 archive recorded around each one, where to find the official dates, and a way to practise these sessions without treating any of it as a forecast.

By the NQ Replay team · Updated October 24, 2026

Short answer

From 8:30 to 9:00 a.m. ET on non-release days, GC's median range was $17.1/oz. In the same 30 minutes after the 2026 jobs reports in the archive, the range ran from $32.0 to $77.5; after CPI, from $19.9 to $76.5. After FOMC statements (2:00–2:30 p.m. ET, baseline $10.4) it ran from $23.7 to $103.5. Reactions varied widely and say nothing about the next release.

How these numbers were measured

Release dates come from the BLS 2026 schedule (CPI and Employment Situation, 8:30 a.m. ET) and the Federal Reserve FOMC calendar (statement at 2:00 p.m. ET). For each release date with an available outright GC session we took the high minus low of the 1-minute bars in the 30 minutes from the release time (8:30–8:59 or 2:00–2:29 p.m. ET). That gives 7 jobs reports, 8 CPI releases and 5 FOMC statements. The baseline is the median of the same window on the 139 full sessions with none of these releases. On GC, $1.00/oz is 10 ticks or $100 per contract.

Data and exclusions

Source: NQ Replay's stored 1-minute bars. Sessions run 6:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. New York time. The archive has available sessions, not every calendar date: weekends, Good Friday and other closures are absent.
Sample: 159 full outright GC sessions from Jan 2 to Aug 21, 2026; NQ 160 sessions on the same dates; MGC 124 sessions from Feb 24, 2026.
Only outright contracts are used; calendar spreads are never stored. Correction: the GC session of Jul 28, 2026 briefly held August–December spread prices; on Oct 24, 2026 it was rebuilt from the original exchange data as the outright GCQ6 contract and is now included.
Also excluded from full-session figures: holiday-shortened sessions (Jan 19, Feb 16, May 25, Jun 19, Jul 3) and partial sessions (Feb 25: no bars from about 1:00 to 2:45 p.m. ET; Aug 24: only 6:00–8:00 p.m. ET on Aug 23 is stored).
The July 29 FOMC statement uses the December (GCZ6) contract, the first session after the August-to-December roll.
Every number is computed by one fixed script from that data, using medians unless stated. A few months of one year is a small sample; these figures describe the past and are not forecasts.

Employment Situation (jobs report), 8:30–9:00 a.m. ET

GC 30-minute range after 2026 jobs reports
Release date	GC range	vs baseline
Fri, Jan 9	$33.8/oz	2.0×
Wed, Feb 11	$68.1/oz	4.0×
Fri, Mar 6	$58.0/oz	3.4×
Fri, Apr 3	No GC session	—
Fri, May 8	$32.0/oz	1.9×
Fri, Jun 5	$63.4/oz	3.7×
Thu, Jul 2	$77.5/oz	4.5×
Fri, Aug 7	$61.5/oz	3.6×

Baseline: $17.1/oz median on non-release sessions.

Consumer Price Index, 8:30–9:00 a.m. ET

GC 30-minute range after 2026 CPI releases
Release date	GC range	vs baseline
Tue, Jan 13	$19.9/oz	1.2×
Fri, Feb 13	$37.5/oz	2.2×
Wed, Mar 11	$35.5/oz	2.1×
Fri, Apr 10	$22.0/oz	1.3×
Tue, May 12	$22.4/oz	1.3×
Wed, Jun 10	$35.8/oz	2.1×
Tue, Jul 14	$76.5/oz	4.5×
Wed, Aug 12	$59.3/oz	3.5×

Baseline: $17.1/oz median on non-release sessions.

FOMC statement, 2:00–2:30 p.m. ET

GC 30-minute range after 2026 FOMC statements
Statement date	GC range	vs baseline
Wed, Jan 28	$34.4/oz	3.3×
Wed, Mar 18	$23.7/oz	2.3×
Wed, Apr 29	$27.9/oz	2.7×
Wed, Jun 17	$103.5/oz	10.0×
Wed, Jul 29	$48.1/oz	4.6×

Baseline: $10.4/oz median on non-release sessions. Press conferences begin 30 minutes after the statement, so later moves are outside this window.

A practice protocol for release days

Look up the date and time on the official calendar first; tag the session in your journal.
Decide your rule before replaying: stand aside through the release, or trade only after a set number of minutes.
Replay to one bar before the release and write down what you would do — then step forward.
Log fills conservatively. A single 1-minute bar can span $60 or more on these days, and replay cannot show where inside that bar a real order would have filled.
Compare your results on tagged and untagged sessions separately.

Release days also overlap the most active hours of the gold session — see GC volume by hour. Nothing on this page predicts how gold will react to any future release.

Frequently asked questions

What time are CPI and jobs reports released?

The BLS publishes the Consumer Price Index and the Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on scheduled dates listed in its release calendar.

What time is the FOMC statement?

The Federal Reserve's calendar lists the FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. ET on the final day of each meeting, followed by the Chair's press conference.

Does gold always move on CPI or FOMC days?

No. In the archive, some release windows were barely wider than an ordinary day and others were several times wider. Past reactions don't say what the next one will do.

Why is the April 3, 2026 jobs report missing?

It was released on Good Friday. The GC archive has no session for that date, so there is nothing to replay.

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Schedule of selected releases, 2026
Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendars and statements
CME Group — Gold (GC) futures contract specifications
NQ Replay 1-minute archive (GC, MGC, NQ, MNQ), measured October 23, 2026. Measurements describe past sessions only.

Educational simulation content only. Nothing here is investment, tax or trading advice, and historical or simulated results do not predict future results. Futures involve substantial risk of loss. See the risk disclosure.