Learn · Gold vs NQ · Measured
Gold vs Nasdaq futures (GC vs NQ): measured differences
If you already practise NQ, switching to gold changes more than the ticker. We compared GC and NQ over the same 159 full outright sessions of 2026 to show what actually differs in range, timing and co-movement.
By the NQ Replay team · Updated
Short answer
On the same 159 sessions in 2026, GC's median session range was 2.37% of its opening price versus 1.83% for NQ, but in dollars per contract they were similar (about $10,810 vs $10,040). Their open-to-close correlation was only 0.35, and gold traded a much larger share of its volume outside US hours.
Contract terms
| Gold (GC) | E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ) | |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying | 100 troy oz of gold | $20 × Nasdaq-100 index |
| Minimum tick | $0.10 per oz | 0.25 index points |
| Tick value | $10 | $5 |
| $ per 1.00 move | $100 per $1/oz | $20 per index point |
| Micro version | MGC: 10 oz, $1 per tick | MNQ: $2 × index, $0.50 per tick |
| Globex hours (ET) | Sun–Fri 6:00 p.m.–5:00 p.m., break 5:00 p.m. | Sun–Fri 6:00 p.m.–5:00 p.m., break 5:00 p.m. |
Measured on the same 2026 sessions
| Measure | GC | NQ |
|---|---|---|
| Median session range (price) | $108.10/oz | 502 points |
| Median session range (% of session open) | 2.37% | 1.83% |
| Median session range per contract | ≈ $10,810 | ≈ $10,040 |
| Median session range in ticks | ≈ 1,081 | ≈ 2,008 |
| Std. dev. of open-to-close move (shared sessions) | 1.93% | 1.38% |
| Share of volume, 8:00 a.m.–noon ET (median) | 35.3% | 45.5% |
| Share of volume, 6:00 p.m.–8:00 a.m. ET (medians) | 17.1% + 26.8% | 7.4% + 10.2% |
Do they move together?
Across the 159 sessions both markets had full data, the correlation of open-to-close returns was 0.35. They finished in the same direction on 91 sessions — 57%, not much better than a coin flip. One market's direction says little about the other's on a given day, and a few months of data can't tell you whether that relationship is stable.
That is also why gold is not a substitute for ES in an SMT divergence check: SMT relies on two closely related indices disagreeing at a swing, which gold and the Nasdaq are not.
What to change when you switch from NQ to gold
- Rewrite stops in ticks. A 20-point NQ stop is 80 ticks; the same idea on GC needs its own distance, based on gold's range — not a copied number.
- Expect overnight movement. With roughly 44% of its median volume between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 a.m. ET, gold often arrives at the New York open far from the prior close.
- Check the calendar. Both react to US data, but gold also moves on rates and the dollar. See gold around CPI, jobs and FOMC.
- Mind the sample. NQ replay history goes back to 2010; gold covers part of 2026. A gold backtest is a much smaller sample.
Frequently asked questions
Is gold more volatile than the Nasdaq?
In the 159 shared 2026 sessions measured, GC's median session range was 2.37% of the session's opening price versus 1.83% for NQ, and its open-to-close moves had a larger standard deviation (1.93% vs 1.38%). Other periods can look different.
Do gold and Nasdaq futures move together?
Loosely. Over 159 shared sessions the open-to-close correlation was 0.35, and they closed in the same direction on 91 sessions (57%). That is far too weak to treat one as a proxy for the other.
Can I use NQ vs gold for SMT divergence?
Not in the usual ICT sense. SMT compares closely related markets such as NQ and ES; gold and the Nasdaq are driven by different factors.
Is one GC contract bigger than one NQ contract?
In dollar swing per session they were similar in 2026: the median session range was about $10,800 per GC contract and about $10,000 per NQ contract. Ticks are very different — $10 on GC versus $5 on NQ.
Sources
- CME Group — Gold (GC) futures contract specifications
- CME Group — E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ) futures contract specifications
- NQ Replay 1-minute archive (GC, MGC, NQ, MNQ), measured October 23, 2026. Measurements describe past sessions only.